There has a been much discussion made about the Gennady “GGG” Golovkin vs. Saul Canelo Alvarez fight for the past 2 years, and it’s quite understandable why boxing fans want to see this match-up. However, in terms of pay-per-view buys and revenue that can be made from the fight, I think it’s going to be a major disappointment.
Golovkin has shown in his only 2 ventures into the world of pay-per-view that he’s simply not a big enough attraction to bring in a lot of buys. Golovkin’s first PPV fight on HBO against David Lemieux brought in 153,000 buys, and his recent fight against Daniel Jacobs pulled in 170,000. To be sure, Golovkin received no help from those fighters in bringing in PPV buys, because neither of them were stars and neither have huge fan bases.
Canelo has a large fan base in Mexico, but he’s not a tremendous star in the U.S with the casual boxing fans. Yes, Canelo has a lot of fans in the States, and he’s easily the No.1 PPV draw at this time, but he’s not at the level of Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao was in their primes of their careers. Canelo’s loyal boxing fans will point out that he’s only 26, and will likely become more popular as he nears his 30s.
Mayweather and Pacquiao weren’t big PPV fighters when they were both 26. Never the less, Canelo vs. Golovkin is not likely to bring in tremendous PPV numbers on HBO because neither of them are big enough stars to pull in a large number of buys fighting each other. Canelo showed in the past that he can bring in a ot of buys when facing other big stars like Mayweather and Miguel Cotto. Golovkin isn’t at the same level as those fighters, however, and he likely never will be even close to them. He lacks the personality and doesn’t have a large built in fan base like those fighters do.
It’s kind of sad that Canelo-Golovkin is the biggest fight in boxing, and yet it might not be big enough to pull in even 1 million buys. It’s not that PPV is dying. It’s because Canelo hasn’t won over the boxing public in the U.S, likely due to the soft match-making that’s being done for him by his promoters at Golden Boy, and the fact that Canelo cannot be understood without an interpreter to decipher his language for the non-Spanish speaking boxing fans.